RESUMEN
This study aimed to develop a computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics model to predict the outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia. In total of 44 patients with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The radiomics model and subtracted radiomics model were developed to assess the prognosis of COVID-19 and compare differences between the aggravate and relief groups. Each radiomic signature consisted of 10 selected features and showed good performance in differentiating between the aggravate and relief groups. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the first model were 98.1%, 97.3%, and 97.6%, respectively (AUC = 0.99). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the second model were 100%, 97.3%, and 98.4%, respectively (AUC = 1.00). There was no significant difference between the models. The radiomics models revealed good performance for predicting the outcome of COVID-19 in the early stage. The CT-based radiomic signature can provide valuable information to identify potential severe COVID-19 patients and aid clinical decisions.
RESUMEN
Hybrid neural network models combine the advantages of a neural network's fitting functionality with differential equation models to reflect actual physical processes and are widely used in analyzing time-series data. Most related studies have focused on linear hybrid models, but only a few have examined nonlinear problems. In this work, we use a hybrid nonlinear epidemic neural network as the entry point to study its power in predicting the correct infection function of an epidemic model. To achieve this goal, we combine the bifurcation theory of the nonlinear differential model with the mean-squared error loss and design a novel loss function to ensure model trainability. Furthermore, we find the unique existence conditions supporting ordinary differential equations to estimate the correct infection function. Using the Runge Kutta method, we perform numerical experiments on our proposed model and verify its soundness. We also apply it to real COVID-19 data to accurately discover the change law of its infectivity.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19RESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelms the medical resources in the stressed intensive care unit (ICU) capacity and the shortage of mechanical ventilation (MV). We performed CT-based analysis combined with electronic health records and clinical laboratory results on Cohort 1 (n = 1662 from 17 hospitals) with prognostic estimation for the rapid stratification of PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients. These models, validated on Cohort 2 (n = 700) and Cohort 3 (n = 662) constructed from nine external hospitals, achieved satisfying performance for predicting ICU, MV, and death of COVID-19 patients (AUROC 0.916, 0.919, and 0.853), even on events happened two days later after admission (AUROC 0.919, 0.943, and 0.856). Both clinical and image features showed complementary roles in prediction and provided accurate estimates to the time of progression (p < 0.001). Our findings are valuable for optimizing the use of medical resources in the COVID-19 pandemic. The models are available here: https://github.com/terryli710/COVID_19_Rapid_Triage_Risk_Predictor .